A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Warn

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."